If you say
that you trade, especially in the cash or derivatives market, the reaction
varies. Some will snigger you are basically gambling, while others would ask
you to invest in less riskier assets like bonds, provident funds or at least
mutual funds.
But is trading akin to gambling?
Trading
cannot be gambling. Gambling is somewhat that depends entirely on your luck. To
be successful in trading you need luck, but that is only a part of the whole
strategy. You also need dedication, patience, research and advice to trade
successfully. In gambling you choose something which is totally random and hope
that it clicks. Sometimes it really does, and the person becomes a millionaire
within an ultra-short span of time. But the chance of somebody winning in
gambling is one in a thousand.
Unlike
gambling, trading does not repeatedly reward somebody who approaches it solely
depending on luck. The most important aspect of trading is that it requires as
much discipline as investing. Only the time frame is shorter and so are the
returns.
Unfortunately,
the motivating factor behind majority of the traders is greed and regret. The
first factor i.e. greed is easy to understand. Most of the people in the
capital market think trading as a quick and easy way of making profit. Herd mentality plays a great role in
trading.
What is here mentality in trading?
Suppose, a stock is falling. Experts say that
the stock has fallen enough and is currently available at very low valuations. On hearing the expert opinions some people
rush to buy that stock. The word spreads and more people join in. You may have
been the logical one who was of opinion that the price can plummet further.
However,
when you see the majority of the share traders jump in the fray, you feel
idiotic to stand at the side while the tide is about to turn favorable.
Throwing your solid logic to the wind, you also buy a number of shares of that
script (well a lot of) thinking, convinced like the rest that the price would
bounce back from here; thence you would make a neat profit and exit.
But share
market history shows us that events do not happen as planned. More bad news(
false results, false revenues, deliberate pushing of goods as sales, capitalization of expenses, profit arising mostly or of one time revenue
activity, regulatory lapses, fine etc.) pulls the stock down even more. Now you
are in a quandary. You took the trade from the angle of trading and not
investing. in such cases mostly you do not have sufficient cash to hold the
positions for long. This is briar you were supposed to get profit shortly and
move off with the money. So, as the price dived further and you cannot trade in
any other lucrative positions, you square off these open positions at a loss.
This is fear at play. Maybe the stock would
have rebounded from there. But fear psychosis (another factor of trading and
generally of herd mentality) forces you to square off at a loss, without
waiting further.
If the buy
price was logical for buying, still your trading behavior was erroneous. You
may ask why?
Your
trading mentality pushed you to accumulate more number of shares that you could
have comfortably maintained in normal mode or in demat. The cash you locked in
by buying a larger number of shares for quick buy and sell, prevented you from
carrying out any other trades. Ultimately, you sold these shares at loss to
unblock this amount.
Another
emotion that plays out repeatedly in the stock market and repeatedly fools the
traders is Regret emotion with a big
E. Lets elaborate this with an example. Let’s say you were trading perfectly.
Suddenly you notice that a stock comes down to an attractive level. But like an
expert trader you wait patiently because you feel that the stock has still some
downturn left. But the stock reverses, goes up, and does not come to that point
again for a long time. You Regret
the decision of not buying it when it had come down to the lowest point earlier
Your regret makes you forget the fact that you
had remained inert because you felt the price had not bottomed out at that
point. As it normally happens, price reaches a lower top and retraces down
again. This time you are quick to buy the shares once it reaches the previous trough.
You feel satisfied. Your regret has gone. You feel that price would rise from
that point because 1) It had done so before 2) You have bought at that point.
Alas, the price
dives further and you watch helplessly as it reaches the price that you had
thought as the proper bottom. You can only watch and Ban-ff your head as you
have already bought at higher prices Your endless wait starts as the price
ho-hums around that level for a long time before finally rising, months or
years later.
You wonder,
what made you buy those shares at the upper level when you had a whiff that
price would reach this bottom point. The answer is single handedly “Regret overcoming Logic”.
The burst
of adrenaline is one of the most dangerous after effects of traders. Truly,
those sitting on front of mobiles and terminals, can overcome this excitement
and trade with rationality and patiently, are successful. On of the most
dangerous emotion that is a result of adrenaline rush is the irresistible urge to trade.
Most of the
time, you will not find someone who sits the whole day waiting for the right
moment to trade. If in any case you find someone, he might be Rakesh
Jhunjhunwala.
In other
mortals, what normally happens is that you restrain yourself at the start.
However as time passes intraday, you become restless, as you visualize the lack
of trading as lack of income for that day. Slowly, your patience evaporates, and at some
point of the day, at an inappropriate opportunity you execute an order, just because you did not trade the whole
day. You keep your fingers crossed that its going to move profitably. Alas
most of the times it does not happen as you envisaged and instead, you suffer a
loss.
Selling
Short, because you feel the price has risen sky high, has left many traders
thunder stuck. In capital markets price can reach sky high and then aim for the
space. Many short sellers have been reduced to penury, when they short sold
scripts or derivatives and got crushed when “short squeeze” occurred. Traders
sometimes forget that is best to sell something only when they have an equal
quantity bought at hand.
Recommended Stock Trading Course for Beginners
Recommended Stock Trading Course for Beginners
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