Short selling is a
gamble. What I have found out in my
years of trading is that short selling
pays off handsomely, well err only a few times.
First, what is Short Selling ?
This type of selling
occurs virtually (especially in the stock and derivatives market) when you sell
something that you do not have in possession i,e, not in demat account.
For example, you sell 10 quantity shares of Reliance, but you do not
have those shares bought intraday before selling
or already in demat .
How can you Short sell in Cash and Derivatives market? Why is this type of action called Short Selling?
In cash market its simple as selling the shares at any point of time before
the cut off (as mandated by SEBI rules
when you can initiate no more new short
positions). Note that this is called Short trading because you are selling
shares which are short of corresponding
buy positions.
So, you have sold the
shares which you do not have in your demat,
or your selling quantity is more than the bought positions in demat. You sold the shares predicting the price
of those scripts will come down soon. In reality,
two events can occur.
After your short sell, the price
may come down, as you envisaged. Or, It may reverse and go up.
If it slides , you will be in profit. If it
moves up, you will suffer loss.
Short selling happens
differently in the cash and in the derivatives market. Short selling is a risky gamble which can destabilize any cash
market.
Rules of short Trading in the Cash market
So, in India, under
SEBI, the rules are that you have you mandatorily buy back the shares that you
have "Shorted" on the same day
within 3.00 PM. If you don't do, your broker will square off (buy) your
positions automatically , without your consent, at 3.15 PM at market price.
What does the above
statement mean?
It means that you have to buy back that quantity of shares which you had sold without having any
corresponding buy quantities in the morning. As per SEBI, you cannot have any
open positions of Short quantities i.e. simple Sell positions of share, at the end of the day.
However, you can short or sell position is derivatives
without any such bars.
Real life
example of short selling in the cash
market
Let's explain
Short Sell through a practical
example.
You Short sell Infosys
(say 5 shares ) at Rupees 1300 apiece. That
means y have sold 5 shares of Infosys, but you do not have corresponding buy
positions.
Your view at the time of selling was that the USD (dollar ) have
already appreciated too much. If the dollar
strengthens/go up verses Rupee, shares of
IT firms with strong overseas presence like Infosys,
TCS (who receive a major portion of their
revenue in dollars) , tend to move up.
However, if Dollar weakens and moves down, Infosys
share price logically follows the same downward
path.Ths happens because it's assumed that their revenue will also come down with the weakening of the dollar.
Now , let's carry on with our example. You thought that Dollar had moved up too fast, and
will come down that day. Henceforth, 3 things
can happen. It can be so that the dollar really moved down but Infosys did not
react as you expected and it moved up by 20 rupees at 3 pm. In such case, you will suffer
a loss of Rs 20 per share when you have
to mandatorily buyback/close your Open
short positions of Infy at 3.00 pm . That’s a total loss of Rupees 100 excluding other charges.
Else, Infy moves down
by Rupees 10 soon after. You square off your positions at a profit of rupees 10
apiece. Your gross profit is Rs 10 * 5 shares = Rs 50, excluding other charges.
Infy price comes down
by Rs 5 soon after. You do nothing, overconfident it will slide more. Price reverses, crosses Rs 1300 and reaches Rs 1320
at 3 PM. Your position is squared off automatically and you suffer a loss of Rs
20 * 5 = Rs 100 on this Short Sell trade.
Shorting in the
Derivatives market
In Derivatives, the procedure is a bit different.
Here you cannot sell one or two shares of that entity.You have to sell in Lots i.e.
a specified number of shares which usually runs from hundreds to thousands per
Lot. The number of shares in a Lot is pre-determined by SEBI. For example, a derivatives lot of share like
Unitech which was trading below Rs 10, had a lot size of 8000 shares (when it traded in the futures market).
You can Sell a lot of
any script in Derivatives/Futures market
without caring a hoot. Here you need not close your position at day end but can
carry it till the expiry date for that contract. The only hitch in this is that you have to make up the
market to market loss (if any) you suffer, for total quantities of that lot at
end of trading, every day.
This will go on until you have the open positions . If you make
a loss, you pay extra money to cover it. If you profit from short selling a
futures position at end of a day, the money is added to your account. There is
no need to close or square off your position in futures , till expiry and till
you have the money to cover your loss.
In India, why can we Short sell ( Sell quantities of an entity without having corresponding Buy positions first) in the Derivatives but not in the cash market?
The answer lies in the
way the Cash and Derivatives/Future market are
settled.
The cash
market is settled by actual positions while the derivatives
market is settled by paying the market to
market profit or loss.
In cash market you can only sell the shares that you physically possess, but in derivatives market, you ultimately close your positions on
expiry by paying/taking in cash the total margin money and the profit or
loss that you have suffered due to your position. There is no physical
settlement of positions.
In a nutshell, for derivatives, you do not need to have the physical quantity
pre-bought , which you will furnish at
the time of expiry. However, what you have to provide is the margin money and
enough amount to cover your market-to-market losses.
Short selling in derivatives is dangerous. Warren Buffet has
famously called derivatives market a destroyer
of wealth, and this happens mostly owing to
short squeezing.
Short Squeeze
In short-term trading,
there's a term: Short Squeeze".
This refers to a position in which there is
a huge quantity of Short Sold positions while the buying position is minuscule in comparison. May God save you , if
you also a participant in those shorted shares, Because , if the price
reverses, there is a mad rush to take whatever profit one can before the price
rises too high, and because bought quantities are not available in sufficient
numbers , people buy at whatever price the stock is available. This causes the price to shoot up like a rocket. And people get
trapped in the short positions. They then buy or square those off at whatever
fancy prices the buyer demands, at heavy losses.
Pros and Cons of shorting
Advantages of shorting
When you are sure that
a script price will slide, and you do not have the shares, short selling is the
only way to profit. This type of trade is best for some quick profit when you
sense that a share price has risen too
much or ann adverse event is going to
occur. You can also follow the Technical analyzers like RSI or MACD oscillator or
follow the Moving averages to decide when
to short sell.
However, the Cons of Short
selling outweigh the Pros. In short selling, you can never be sure when the price
will reverse. Believe me, it happens so
in 80% of the cases that the price of the script reverses at some point of the
day. The news for which the script fell might turn out to be no news at all, and
then the script reverses and takes an upward trajectory. If you cannot square
off your selling positions at this point in
time, you will suffer heavy losses. In
case of short selling, you gamble and depend on your luck. Most of the times, your gamble will not pay off.
What are the strategies I should follow for short selling?
Short selling in
futures or in the cash market is not
advised. The problem in the futures market is that you cannot carry forward the
intraday position. In derivatives, the
problem lies in the fact that although they are meant to be carry forward,
the loss suffered owing to the large quantities in a derivatives LOT of that
script, makes it untenable to hold your positions if the price rise continues.
So there are only two
strategies that you can apply when trading Short.
Be fast and quickly
take some profit off the table if the price suffers a downfall soon after. Try
to make some profit whenever the price hurtles
downward so that you are at breakeven even if
the price rises after that downward movement.
Another way is to take
off the entire profit fast whenever you get even a small downward movement
after short selling.
Another way you can
tackle the situation is to apply Stop-Loss.
This will help to curb your losses and save you from getting burnt if the price suddenly shoots upward. If you
ask me, this is the best strategy of the lot. Place a stop loss and wait
patiently. If the price moves down, square off and pocket the profit. If the
price doesn't
do so and moves up instead, your stop-loss
will protect your capital from getting eroded too much. You will live to trade
another day. Who knows, you may hit the jackpot the next day.
Do
not take too many positions in Short Trade.
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